Leavenworth Housing Shortage in 2013?

Two big questions I get asked all the time now by home buyers – “Are there more houses coming on the market soon?” “Is there a Leavenworth housing shortage?” People who have been watching the Seattle area real estate market know that Seattle hasn’t had much in the way of inventory in 2012 or 2013 and that shortage of inventory has turned Seattle into a seller’s market once again with lots of bidding wars and multiple-offer scenarios.
Image courtesy of PTMoney.com
 

It is a reasonable question to ask :
Will we have a Leavenworth housing shortage in 2013?
If you look at all the single family homes on the market, the answer is clearly no. By the middle of June 2013, 120 homes have sold in the Leavenworth area in the past 12 months. At this moment, there are 166 homes for sale. At the current rate of sales, this gives us almost 17 months of supply  which is a strong BUYER’S market.  At first blush, this is the opposite of what is happening in Seattle right now.
We don’t have a Leavenworth housing shortage.
What about moderately priced homes?
97 houses sold in last twelve months under $400,000 in the Leavenworth area. Right now there are 90 for sale. This is about 11 months of inventory. Given that we call 6 months of inventory a balanced market and less than that a  seller’s market, I would say we still have a strong buyer’s market under $400,000. If we break down the categories into small niches, the months of inventory remains similar. For example, cabins (not in the city limits) in the Leavenworth zipcode between $200-300,000: 24 sold in 12 months |  23 are for sale  | 12.6 months of inventory | 4 pending sales for cabins between $300-400,000 32 sold in 12 months | 28 are for sale | 10.5 months of inventory | 4 pending sales So even though the number of homes for sale in your price range might be small, or you don’t particularly care for any of the options, there actually is quite a bit of inventory compared to the demand. From a seller standpoint, while the number of sales is up considerably this year, it’s still a BUYER’S MARKET in every price range.  Our colleague, Steve tweeted:
Evolving market this spring w/ 2 types of sellers emerging: ones recognizing opportunity to sell w better conditions, others think it’s 2006 — Steve Craig (@LakeWenatcheeWA) May 17, 2013
  Leavenworth home sellers who think it’s 2006 or think that the Seattle market and the Leavenworth market are the same, will likely be disappointed with the results.
What about the Leavenworth luxury home market?
There are currently 30 homes on the market above $600,000. Only seven homes have sold in this price range in the past year, which means that there is a whopping 52 months of supply.  It clearly is a very strong buyers’ market in the upper price ranges.       ********************************************************************************************************** Required Disclaimer NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the North Central Washington Association of Realtors or its Multiple Listing Service. Neither the Association nor its MLS guarantees or are in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the Market.