Leavenworth Real Estate Update: Q4 2009

How best to summarize the 2009 Leavenworth real estate market?

I often tell folks that our market is kind of "muddling" along. Home prices are stagnant or maybe even down a little, but not much in comparison to the Seattle area  or other parts of the country.

 

In addition to my usual quarterly graph, I've included a year end graph.

 

 

Year Over Year Home Prices

Year Over Year Home Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 And here's a different take, just looking at the 4th quarter.

 

 

Leavenworth Home Prices

Leavenworth Home Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting how they tell a different story isn’t it?

This is especially true for condos. The quarterly chart makes it look like prices just keep going up for condos.  In 2009 we had 8 condos sell in the fourth quarter, while in 2008 and 2007 only 1 condo sold and they were for pretty low prices as you can see.

I think  the Year over Year chart is more accurate because it is based on more data. Condo prices simply aren't going up.

Synopsis:

  • Home prices are flat and slightly off their 2007 peak.
  • Condo prices are down, due to oversupply.

Not in these charts:

  • Huge number of condo sales in the 4th Quarter. Bargain seekers taking advantage of low prices. This will continue in the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2010.
  • Number of raw land parcels that sold in 2009 was abysmal. Down 50%.
  • Number homes sold down 36%.
  • Very few foreclosures or short sales
  • Very little spec building for single family homes

We often get asked about the effect of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit in the 4th Quarter. (It expired and then Congress renewed it again until Spring of 2010.) While it may be a big deal in Seattle and Wenatchee, it hasn't had much effect in Leavenworth.  Since most buyers aren't buying primary residences, we aren't seeing increased demand.   First time home buyers in Leavenworth are looking for homes under $250,000 and preferably $200,000 and if that product doesn't exist, then $8000 of tax credit won't help. 

Predictions for 2010

The prudent thing would be to avoid making predictions at all. I certainly wouldn't be the first real estate prognosticator to pass on the opportunity.

Some thoughts:

  • I would guess prices will continue to muddle along. Some neighborhoods will see price drops and others won't.
  • Condo inventory will clear out.  I would guess that foreclosure or auctions will be part of this equation.
  • The overall number of foreclosures and short sales will remain low.
  • Demand and prices for premium locations (waterfront properties) will remain strong.

What do you think? What does your crystal ball show that mine is missing?

Update 1/26/10

Looks like I transposed two numbers when making my chart. Here's the corrected version of the Year over Year chart.

2009 Home Prices - Leavenworth WA

 

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Required Disclaimer

NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the North Central Washington Association of Realtors or its Multiple Listing Service. Neither the Association nor its MLS guarantees or are in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the Market.

Comments

JR - You might want to take another look at the post. Condo prices aren't going up in Leavenworth. Nothing could be further from the truth. The sales of the Cascade Crest Condos at $240,000 and now the sales along West Whitman at $129,000 are a real departure from the prices of 2007.

I don't know too much about condos because I sell houses, but it surprises me the condo prices are going up while houses are still falling in value... perhaps I'm in the wrong business. JR McGee http://www.jrmcgee.com

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Allyson and Geordie Romer

Leavenworth real estate agents - Allyson and Geordie Romer

For over a decade, Allyson and Geordie have been serving clients in the Leavenworth-area real estate market. Together, they work tirelessly to stay on top of the regional market and present the most relevant opportunities to their clientele.

When not in the office, they can be found exploring the endless recreation opportunities of the area in all of its seasons.

 

Testimonials

 

Geordie provided excellent real estate representation! We appreciated his detailed knowledge of the market, his up front and honest approach, and his negotiation skills.
As reviewed on Zillow  – 

- Laura Anderson

 

 

As “west siders” looking for a getaway near Leavenworth, Geordie provided insight … his knowledge of design features important in a “snowy winter wonderland” was appreciated. Thanks Geordie!
As reviewed on Zillow  –
 

- Jean Stern

 

 

Geordie made this somewhat complicated transition easier for us…going above and beyond to help us work through issues that came up during the sale of our parents home. We appreciated his knowledge, attentiveness to details and his willing spirit.
Our family is grateful for Geordie!
As reviewed on Zillow  – 

- Terry Foster

 

 

Geordie was great in every way. We have been looking in the Leavenworth area for some time, and Geordie was absolutely the best for local knowledge, history and depth on neighborhoods, developments and the local market trends. He was very quick to respond (even when he was on his vacation) and worked very diligently to get all of our questions answered in a very timely fashion. We would recommend him highly to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. Very friendly, and helped us navigate all of the local options before we made an offer on the property that we purchased. Thank you, Geordie!

As reviewed on Zillow  – 

- Ryan Olsen

 

 

It was such a pleasure to work with Geordie and his wife, Allyson on our cabin purchase. They showed us a variety of locations, listened to what we wanted and helped us find the perfect match. Everything was smooth and not stressful, just relaxed and easy. We would definitely recommend Geordie and use him again if the need arises!

As reviewed on Zillow  – 

- Cammie Schlosser

 

Moving to Leavenworth?

Are you looking for a cabin or a condo in Leavenworth that your family can use as a home base when climbing, skiing or hiking around Leavenworth or Lake Wenatchee?

Maybe you rent a house here and have decided to stay, surprised how a summer of rafting somehow turned into seven years.

Maybe it’s time to escape the hustle of the big city (and its rain) and move to Leavenworth with its four seasons.

Maybe you bought a condo years ago, don’t seem to use as much, and it’s time to sell.

Whatever your motivation, we are here to help. If you are buying a home, the best place to start is with our Homebuyer’s Guide to Leavenworth.